Dmitri Dolgov, Waymo · Y Combinator
The demo is 1% of the work
Dmitri Dolgov opened his YC talk by separating two things founders routinely merge: an early working prototype, and a production-grade service. The gap between them is not a percentage of remaining effort. Dolgov describes reliability as living on an exponential ladder of nines, where climbing from 90 percent to 99 is expensive and climbing from 99 to 99.9 costs more again. Each nine is a different engineering problem, not more of the last one.
Waymo now drives over four million fully autonomous miles every week, and that number is what the ladder buys after years of paying for it. The founder version is smaller and identical in shape. Your demo cleared the first rung. Price the rest of the climb before you promise anyone a date.
Steal it
Before you commit to a launch date, write down the failure rate you ship at today and the one you need. If you cannot name both numbers, you are estimating the demo.