Works best when a real gift comes first and fits the person. The McDonald's balloons were identical, and only the timing changed.
Fails when the gift reads as a device. Cialdini separates people who give you things to obligate you from people who give because they like you. A gift designed to get you to do something is not a true gift, and he says to tell the two apart. Influence gives the defense: once a gift turns out to be a sales tactic, redefine it as a trick and the obligation to repay goes away. The people you give to can do the same to you.
Fails when concessions become the whole negotiation. On All Things Negotiation, the host, who teaches negotiation, pushed back that trading small concessions pulls both sides out of joint problem solving. Cialdini agreed concessions should not be your only tool. His fix is to make a concession and then ask for their advice on a suitable concession from their side. That turns the trade back into a shared problem.
It also fails when you cancel the debt yourself. Wave off a thank-you and you tell the other person they owe nothing. The world works better, Cialdini says, when people who give get something for it, because otherwise they stop giving.